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International Area Studies Review
[ Article ]
International Area Studies Review - Vol. 28, No. 3, pp.263-276
ISSN: 2233-8659 (Print)
Print publication date 25 Sep 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.69473/iasr.2025.28.3.263

Dynamic Analysis of Korea’s Crude Oil Import Demand: The Impact of Economic Growth, Oil Prices, and Major Economic Disruptions (1980-2023)

Honyun Kim ; Seunghoon Paik*
Kumho Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Republic of Korea
Visiting Professor of Arabic Studies, Myongji University, Republic of Korea

Correspondence to: *Email: paik-house@hanmail.net

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of South Korea’s crude oil import demand from 1980 to 2023. The analysis considers the impacts of economic growth, oil prices, and economic disruptions, including the Asian financial crisis (1997-1998), the global financial crisis (2008-2009), and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021). The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine the short- and long-run relationships between crude oil imports, GDP, and oil prices. The results demonstrate that, in the long run, real GDP has a positive effect on crude oil import demand, while oil prices have a significant negative effect. This confirms that South Korea’s crude oil demand is more elastic in income than in price. The Asian financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic show significant impacts on the long-term crude oil demand, while the 2008 global financial crisis does not have a significant effect. In the short run, the effects of oil prices, GDP and economic disruptions are not statistically significant. However, there is a rapid adjustment towards long-term equilibrium, indicating that long-term factors exert a predominant influence. The findings emphasise the significance of long-term economic fundamentals in influencing crude oil import patterns and propose policy measures to enhance energy security.

Keywords:

Oil price, GDP, ARDL, Economic disruptions, COVID-19

AI Acknowledgment

Generative AI or AI-assisted technologies were not used in any way to prepare, write, or complete essential authoring tasks in this manuscript.

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

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