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International Area Studies Review
[ Article ]
International Area Studies Review - Vol. 28, No. 1, pp.24-48
ISSN: 2233-8659 (Print)
Print publication date 31 Mar 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.69473/iasr.2025.28.1.24

Measurement for Media Sensitive-Trade Nexus: Case for U.S.-China-South Korea Trilateral Relationship

Wonseong Kim ; Jinhyoung Kim*
Institute of Economics and Statistics, Korea University, Republic of Korea
HK+ National Strategies Research Project Agency, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Republic of Korea

Correspondence to: *Email: kimjh@hufs.ac.kr

Abstract

Political instability, often fueled by geopolitical tensions, plays a critical role in shaping the economic landscape, particularly through its impact on trade and investment flows. Media, as the primary conduit of information, significantly influences public perception and, consequently, market behavior. However, there is a lack of empirical studies to explain such a media role in trade and investment flows. This study attempts to create a media sensitive-trade index, with a focus on the geopolitical dynamics between the Unities States, China, and Korea. Using advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and Large Language Models (LLMs), the research quantifies media sentiment and links it to Balance of Payments (BOP). The analysis shows that Korea’s trade trends are more influenced by the broader U.S.-China relationship than by its direct relations with either nation. Notably, the study finds that media sentiment, particularly in the service sectors, plays a predictive role in economic trends, with positive sentiment correlating with improved performance in areas such as transportation, intellectual property and government service balance services. The developed index in this study supplements ex-post indicators, with the characteristics of ex-ante indicators, regarding to the short-term detection strategy for media sensitive economic system.

Keywords:

Media sensitive-trade index, National Security Index, International trade, Geopolitical tensions, Natural Language Processing (NLP), News sentiment

AI Acknowledgment

Generative AI or AI-assisted technologies were not used in any way to prepare, write, or complete essential authoring tasks in this manuscript.

Conflicting interests

The author(s) declare that there is no conflict of interest. (If there are conflicts of interest, list them in detail, specifying the nature of the conflict and the involved parties.)

Funding

1. This work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2020S1A6A3A04064633).

2. This work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2024S1A5B5A17037511).

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